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(来源:英语学习门户网站EnglishCN.com)

UK house prices are now nearly 15 per cent lower than 12 months ago, according to the Nationwide, with the price of an average house dropping by £30,000 to £158,872.

But when will the house price crash end and how far will prices fall? Should buyers grab a bargain now, or wait another year, or even longer. Times Money asked five experts for their predictions on when the market will hit rock bottom. Here are their answers. And have your say in our poll below.

Martin Ellis – chief economist, Halifax

Prediction: Another 8% fall

“We are predicting a 20 per cent fall over 2008 and 2009 – so as we calculate that prices have already fallen by 12.4 per cent, we would expect roughly another 8 per cent fall before prices start to bottom out at the end of 2009.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the economy and unemployment figures in particular at the moment, so it’s very hard to say when prices will start to recover. Prices certainly won’t bounce back quickly.”

Jonathan Davis – housepricecrash.co.uk

Prediction: Another 35% fall

“The market will not bottom out until spring 2011, by which point there will be a 40 to 50 per cent drop from when house prices were at their peak in August last year.

“If you remember the last house price crash in 1988, it took until 1994 for the market to recover, so a good four or five years. There is no reason whatsoever to suppose the market will recover any quicker this time.

“It is far too early to bag a bargain – people should not be buying for at least another two years. We are only one year into the crash, and it has a long way to go yet.”

Yolande Barnes – Savills

Prediction: Another 10% fall

“We are forecasting a 25 per cent drop from when house prices were at their peak last year, so that means we’ve got about another 10 per cent to go. Whilst we expect prices to bottom out during 2010, the prospect of recession means we do not expect prices to start recovering anytime soon. Houses will not regain their 2007 value until about 2014, or possibly 2013 in the south-east.”

Nicholas Leeming – propertyfinder.com

Prediction: Another 10% fall

“There will be a further drop of about 10 per cent throughout 2009, before the market starts to level out at the end of the year. It will take a while for the effects of the Government bail-out to filter through – the capital markets will not be freed up until maybe the third quarter of 2009, when we can expect to see more mortgage transactions and a gradual recovery of the market.”

Nick Bate, UK economist, Merrill Lynch

Prediction: Another 10% fall

“There will be a 25 per cent drop from the market peak last summer – we have already seen about a 15 per cent drop, so we have about another 10 per cent to go.

“However, no one can say with any confidence exactly where prices will be in a year’s time – but it will certainly be a long time before prices recover to the levels we saw last year. With unemployment rising and people becoming less credit worthy, banks may continue to be reluctant to lend for some time, and this will lead to a very muted recovery.”

目前英国的房价在全国范围内比起十二个月前下跌了近15%,一幢平均水平的房子已下降了3万欧元,降到了158872欧元。

但什么时候房价能够止跌,房价要跌到哪里?购房者是应该现在就出手,还是再等一年或更久?《泰晤士报》财经专栏邀请了五位专家,请他们预测什么时候市场可以见底。以下是他们的答案,你也可以在下面的投票中说说你的看法。

马丁.埃利斯----首席经济学家,哈利法克斯公司

预测:还会降8%

“我们预测2008年到2009年会有20%的降幅----按我们的计算,价格已经下降了12.4%,所以粗略估计,到2009年底房价见底前还有8%的降价空间。”

“经济和失业人数的不确定性很大,尤其是现在,所以很难说房价什么时候可以复苏,但要迅速反弹是决不可能的。”

乔纳森.戴维斯----“房价冲击”网站

预测:还会降35%

“在2011年春季前房价不会见底,房价会从去年八月的最高点下跌40%-50%。”

“如果你还记得上一次在1988年的房价下跌,直到1994年市场才恢复,花了四到五年时间。所以这次没有理由市场会更快恢复。”

“现在买房还早得很----购房者至少在今后两年内都不应该买房。我们的房价才跌了一年,还有很长的路要走。”

约兰德.巴恩斯----戴维斯公司

预测:还会降10%

“我们预测房价从去年最高点会下跌25%,所以意味着还有10%的跌幅。我们希望房价在2010年间可以见底,但因为对经济衰退的预期,我们认为房价绝不会很快回升。要到2014年,可能东南部到2013年,房价才能重回2007年的价格。

 
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